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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
2
6
0
8
0
2
2
4
2
10
3
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
10
21
18
49
0
2
2
4
10
25
21
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
13
7
20
13
40
0
53
0
13
13
27
13
67
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
2
5
18
38
32
88
0
4
4
7
18
45
38
100

hitrate: 0.533 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.80 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 1.96 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.300 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.173 true Heidke skill score: -0.028
Kuipers skill score: 0.300 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.196 true Kuipers skill score: -0.026
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.396 0.087
equitable threat score:
-0.087 0.100 0.286
equitable threat score:
-0.043 -0.028 0.023
probability of detection:
0.000 0.600 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.840 0.095
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.250 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.571 0.500
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00