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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
8
6
15
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
2
1
9
8
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
8
6
15
23
37
28
88
0
1
1
2
24
46
35
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
44
33
83
0
0
6
6
0
6
6
11
6
50
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
8
6
14
22
35
27
84
0
1
1
2
23
44
33
100

hitrate: 0.111 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
15.00 0.11 0.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.62 1.91 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.333 Heidke skill score: 0.057
true Heidke skill score: -0.014 true Heidke skill score: -0.059
Kuipers skill score: -0.333 Kuipers skill score: 0.057
true Kuipers skill score: -0.022 true Kuipers skill score: -0.054
threat score:
0.067 0.000 0.111
threat score:
0.026 0.381 0.028
equitable threat score:
0.012 -0.053 0.014
equitable threat score:
-0.070 -0.027 0.009
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.125
probability of detection:
0.042 0.804 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.933 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.933 0.580 0.500
samples: 18 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 17.14 %coverage: 100.00