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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
2
5
1
8
1
3
2
6
3
9
4
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
7
20
21
48
1
3
2
6
8
24
24
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
6
13
13
31
6
50
6
19
13
38
19
56
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
13
36
38
86
2
5
4
11
14
43
43
100

hitrate: 0.438 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 0.89 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 2.00 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.156 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.065 true Heidke skill score: -0.044
Kuipers skill score: 0.156 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.067 true Kuipers skill score: -0.042
threat score:
0.000 0.417 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.385 0.071
equitable threat score:
-0.081 0.067 0.077
equitable threat score:
-0.029 -0.018 -0.022
probability of detection:
0.000 0.556 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.375 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.583 0.667
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00