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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
3
5
0
8
0
4
0
4
4
9
2
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
7
20
22
49
0
4
0
4
8
24
24
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
0
13
20
20
33
0
53
0
27
0
27
27
60
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
4
5
13
36
39
88
0
7
0
7
14
43
43
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 0.89 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 2.04 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.015 true Heidke skill score: -0.065
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.016 true Kuipers skill score: -0.063
threat score:
0.167 0.417 0.000
threat score:
0.100 0.377 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.038 0.028 -0.098
equitable threat score:
0.060 -0.031 -0.065
probability of detection:
0.250 0.556 0.000
probability of detection:
0.125 0.833 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.375 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.592 1.000
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00