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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
0
11
0
2
0
2
0
0
4
4
8
5
4
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
0
11
31
42
17
90
0
0
4
4
39
45
21
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
47
18
0
65
0
12
0
12
0
0
24
24
47
29
24
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
0
10
30
40
16
86
0
0
4
4
37
43
20
100

hitrate: 0.824 hitrate: 0.514
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.38 0.40 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.28 2.00 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.735 Heidke skill score: 0.271
true Heidke skill score: 0.709 true Heidke skill score: 0.171
Kuipers skill score: 0.735 Kuipers skill score: 0.271
true Kuipers skill score: 0.674 true Kuipers skill score: 0.157
threat score:
0.727 0.400 1.000
threat score:
0.190 0.452 0.190
equitable threat score:
0.485 0.320 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.103 0.063 0.158
probability of detection:
1.000 0.400 1.000
probability of detection:
0.205 0.933 0.190
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.273 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.273 0.533 0.000
samples: 17 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 16.19 %coverage: 100.00