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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
0
6
2
1
1
4
1
2
2
5
6
6
3
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
0
6
35
40
19
94
1
2
2
5
39
45
21
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
20
0
40
13
7
7
27
7
13
13
33
40
40
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
0
6
33
38
18
90
1
2
2
5
37
43
20
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.67 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 2.09 0.24
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.100 true Heidke skill score: 0.024
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.104 true Kuipers skill score: 0.022
threat score:
0.333 0.111 0.333
threat score:
0.071 0.404 0.083
equitable threat score:
0.091 -0.081 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.019 -0.005 0.043
probability of detection:
0.500 0.167 0.667
probability of detection:
0.077 0.889 0.095
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.750 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.574 0.600
samples: 15 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00