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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
5
3
0
8
3
1
0
4
9
6
0
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
11
23
15
49
3
1
0
4
15
26
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
13
0
20
33
20
0
53
20
7
0
27
60
40
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
0
5
20
41
27
88
5
2
0
7
27
46
27
100

hitrate: 0.267 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 1.33 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 1.88 0.27
Heidke skill score: -0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: -0.100 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: -0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: -0.139 true Kuipers skill score: -0.017
threat score:
0.091 0.273 0.000
threat score:
0.059 0.442 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.087 -0.026 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.012 0.009 -0.060
probability of detection:
0.111 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.067 0.885 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.625 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.531 1.000
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00