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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
2
1
0
3
0
5
10
15
4
7
10
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
40
34
13
87
0
5
10
15
42
40
23
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
5
0
14
10
5
0
14
0
24
48
71
19
33
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
38
32
12
83
0
5
10
14
40
38
22
100

hitrate: 0.619 hitrate: 0.438
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 0.43 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.17 0.65
Heidke skill score: 0.429 Heidke skill score: 0.157
true Heidke skill score: 0.349 true Heidke skill score: 0.124
Kuipers skill score: 0.429 Kuipers skill score: 0.157
true Kuipers skill score: 0.326 true Kuipers skill score: 0.123
threat score:
0.400 0.111 0.667
threat score:
0.047 0.366 0.357
equitable threat score:
0.323 0.000 0.364
equitable threat score:
0.019 0.014 0.272
probability of detection:
0.500 0.143 1.000
probability of detection:
0.048 0.850 0.435
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.667 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.609 0.333
samples: 21 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00