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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
1
1
5
1
6
8
15
4
7
9
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
41
34
15
90
1
6
8
15
42
40
23
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
5
5
25
5
30
40
75
20
35
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
39
32
14
86
1
6
8
14
40
38
22
100

hitrate: 0.450 hitrate: 0.400
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.71 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.25 0.65
Heidke skill score: 0.175 Heidke skill score: 0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.043 true Heidke skill score: 0.066
Kuipers skill score: 0.175 Kuipers skill score: 0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.039 true Kuipers skill score: 0.065
threat score:
0.000 0.091 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.354 0.267
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.081 0.135
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.005 0.176
probability of detection:
0.000 0.143 0.889
probability of detection:
0.000 0.850 0.348
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.800 0.467
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.622 0.467
samples: 20 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 19.05 %coverage: 100.00