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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
5
1
1
7
1
5
4
10
8
7
5
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
39
34
19
92
1
5
4
10
42
40
23
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
5
0
15
25
5
5
35
5
25
20
50
40
35
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
37
32
18
88
1
5
4
10
40
38
22
100

hitrate: 0.350 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 1.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.30 0.43
Heidke skill score: 0.025 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.061 true Heidke skill score: 0.023
Kuipers skill score: 0.025 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.065 true Kuipers skill score: 0.023
threat score:
0.222 0.077 0.364
threat score:
0.047 0.347 0.138
equitable threat score:
0.103 -0.137 0.176
equitable threat score:
0.019 -0.017 0.067
probability of detection:
0.250 0.143 0.800
probability of detection:
0.048 0.850 0.174
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.857 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.630 0.600
samples: 20 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 19.05 %coverage: 100.00