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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
1
2
0
3
0
7
14
21
1
10
14
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
3
32
48
83
0
7
14
21
3
40
62
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
0
4
4
8
0
12
0
28
56
84
4
40
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
3
30
46
79
0
7
13
20
3
38
59
100

hitrate: 0.640 hitrate: 0.438
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.30 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 2.08 0.34
Heidke skill score: 0.460 Heidke skill score: 0.157
true Heidke skill score: 0.250 true Heidke skill score: 0.032
Kuipers skill score: 0.460 Kuipers skill score: 0.157
true Kuipers skill score: 0.229 true Kuipers skill score: 0.037
threat score:
0.000 0.182 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.352 0.203
equitable threat score:
-0.020 0.082 0.242
equitable threat score:
-0.007 0.006 0.028
probability of detection:
0.000 0.200 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.226
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.333 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.614 0.333
samples: 25 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 23.81 %coverage: 100.00