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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
0
5
0
3
0
3
0
3
14
17
1
10
14
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
0
5
2
33
48
83
0
3
14
17
3
40
62
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
16
0
20
0
12
0
12
0
12
56
68
4
40
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
0
5
2
31
46
79
0
3
13
16
3
38
59
100

hitrate: 0.720 hitrate: 0.457
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 0.30 1.21
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 2.08 0.27
Heidke skill score: 0.580 Heidke skill score: 0.186
true Heidke skill score: 0.503 true Heidke skill score: 0.098
Kuipers skill score: 0.580 Kuipers skill score: 0.186
true Kuipers skill score: 0.540 true Kuipers skill score: 0.117
threat score:
0.200 0.300 0.824
threat score:
0.143 0.367 0.215
equitable threat score:
0.167 0.205 0.599
equitable threat score:
0.125 0.024 0.072
probability of detection:
1.000 0.300 1.000
probability of detection:
0.333 0.825 0.226
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.000 0.176
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.602 0.176
samples: 25 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 23.81 %coverage: 100.00