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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
1
4
0
5
0
5
13
18
1
12
13
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
3
32
49
84
0
5
13
18
3
40
62
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
12
0
12
4
15
0
19
0
19
50
69
4
46
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
3
30
47
80
0
5
12
17
3
38
59
100

hitrate: 0.654 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.42 1.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 2.10 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.481 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.383 true Heidke skill score: 0.037
Kuipers skill score: 0.481 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.401 true Kuipers skill score: 0.043
threat score:
0.000 0.308 0.722
threat score:
0.000 0.348 0.194
equitable threat score:
-0.030 0.158 0.444
equitable threat score:
-0.014 0.000 0.042
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.210
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.200 0.278
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.619 0.278
samples: 26 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 24.76 %coverage: 100.00