CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
3
4
0
1
1
2
1
0
20
21
1
2
24
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
3
4
0
15
65
80
1
0
20
21
1
16
88
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
11
15
0
4
4
7
4
0
74
78
4
7
89
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
3
4
0
14
62
76
1
0
19
20
1
15
84
100

hitrate: 0.778 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 1.00 0.88
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 5.00 0.24
Heidke skill score: 0.667 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.253 true Heidke skill score: 0.069
Kuipers skill score: 0.667 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.372 true Kuipers skill score: 0.180
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.800
threat score:
0.000 0.185 0.225
equitable threat score:
-0.031 0.299 0.211
equitable threat score:
-0.008 0.041 0.034
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.833
probability of detection:
0.000 0.938 0.227
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.812 0.048
samples: 27 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 25.71 %coverage: 100.00