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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
6
0
0
0
0
1
0
20
21
1
2
24
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
6
0
14
64
78
1
0
20
21
1
16
88
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
15
22
0
0
0
0
4
0
74
78
4
7
89
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
6
0
13
61
74
1
0
19
20
1
15
84
100

hitrate: 0.741 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
6.00 0.00 0.88
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
6.00 4.88 0.24
Heidke skill score: 0.611 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.137 true Heidke skill score: 0.059
Kuipers skill score: 0.611 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.203 true Kuipers skill score: 0.155
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.800
threat score:
0.000 0.175 0.225
equitable threat score:
-0.033 0.000 0.211
equitable threat score:
-0.008 0.031 0.034
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.833
probability of detection:
0.000 0.875 0.227
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.821 0.048
samples: 27 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 25.71 %coverage: 100.00