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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
0
2
0
2
1
0
20
21
1
2
24
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
0
16
64
80
1
0
20
21
1
16
88
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
15
15
0
7
0
7
4
0
74
78
4
7
89
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
0
15
61
76
1
0
19
20
1
15
84
100

hitrate: 0.815 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 1.00 0.88
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 5.00 0.24
Heidke skill score: 0.722 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.378 true Heidke skill score: 0.082
Kuipers skill score: 0.722 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.554 true Kuipers skill score: 0.214
threat score:
0.000 1.000 0.800
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.225
equitable threat score:
-0.031 1.000 0.211
equitable threat score:
-0.008 0.056 0.034
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.833
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.227
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.800 0.048
samples: 27 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 25.71 %coverage: 100.00