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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
4
16
20
0
5
18
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
0
15
67
82
0
4
16
20
0
20
85
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
9
13
0
0
0
0
0
17
70
87
0
22
78
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
0
14
64
78
0
4
15
19
0
19
81
100

hitrate: 0.696 hitrate: 0.295
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.11
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 4.10 0.24
Heidke skill score: 0.543 Heidke skill score: -0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.047 true Heidke skill score: -0.011
Kuipers skill score: 0.543 Kuipers skill score: -0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.044 true Kuipers skill score: -0.025
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.727
threat score:
0.000 0.172 0.180
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.055
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.009 -0.003
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.889
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.188
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.817 0.200
samples: 23 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 21.90 %coverage: 100.00