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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
0
3
0
3
0
1
16
17
0
5
18
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
0
18
67
85
0
1
16
17
0
20
85
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
9
13
0
13
0
13
0
4
70
74
0
22
78
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
0
17
64
81
0
1
15
16
0
19
81
100

hitrate: 0.826 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.60 0.94
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 4.25 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.739 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.558 true Heidke skill score: 0.054
Kuipers skill score: 0.739 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.644 true Kuipers skill score: 0.125
threat score:
0.000 0.600 0.842
threat score:
0.000 0.207 0.186
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.540 0.473
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.026 0.031
probability of detection:
0.000 0.600 0.889
probability of detection:
0.000 0.900 0.188
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.788 0.059
samples: 23 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 21.90 %coverage: 100.00