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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
5
17
22
0
5
18
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
15
67
82
0
5
17
22
0
20
85
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
0
0
0
0
0
22
74
96
0
22
78
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
14
64
78
0
5
16
21
0
19
81
100

hitrate: 0.739 hitrate: 0.305
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.22
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 4.10 0.26
Heidke skill score: 0.609 Heidke skill score: -0.043
true Heidke skill score: -0.038 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: 0.609 Kuipers skill score: -0.043
true Kuipers skill score: -0.028 true Kuipers skill score: -0.044
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.739
threat score:
0.000 0.172 0.189
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.038
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.009 -0.011
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.944
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.227
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.817 0.227
samples: 23 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 21.90 %coverage: 100.00