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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
2
6
0
1
0
1
0
0
16
16
0
5
18
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
2
6
0
16
67
83
0
0
16
16
0
20
85
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
17
9
26
0
4
0
4
0
0
70
70
0
22
78
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
2
6
0
15
64
79
0
0
15
15
0
19
81
100

hitrate: 0.739 hitrate: 0.305
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.20 0.89
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 4.15 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.609 Heidke skill score: -0.043
true Heidke skill score: 0.415 true Heidke skill score: 0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.609 Kuipers skill score: -0.043
true Kuipers skill score: 0.544 true Kuipers skill score: 0.100
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.889
threat score:
0.000 0.184 0.188
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.164 0.635
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.003 0.042
probability of detection:
0.000 0.200 0.889
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.188
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.807 0.000
samples: 23 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 21.90 %coverage: 100.00