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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
2
1
0
3
3
5
11
19
5
7
11
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
17
23
45
85
3
5
11
19
20
29
56
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
0
4
9
4
0
13
13
22
48
83
22
30
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
16
22
43
81
3
5
10
18
19
28
53
100

hitrate: 0.522 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 0.43 1.73
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.93 0.34
Heidke skill score: 0.283 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.139 true Heidke skill score: 0.003
Kuipers skill score: 0.283 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.123 true Kuipers skill score: 0.003
threat score:
0.000 0.111 0.579
threat score:
0.000 0.253 0.172
equitable threat score:
-0.038 0.011 0.193
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.007 0.016
probability of detection:
0.000 0.143 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.793 0.196
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.421
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.729 0.421
samples: 23 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 21.90 %coverage: 100.00