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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
2
1
0
3
3
3
11
17
5
7
11
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
17
23
45
85
3
3
11
17
20
29
56
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
13
0
13
9
4
0
13
13
13
48
74
22
30
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
16
22
43
81
3
3
10
16
19
28
53
100

hitrate: 0.522 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 0.43 1.55
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 2.93 0.30
Heidke skill score: 0.283 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.173 true Heidke skill score: 0.012
Kuipers skill score: 0.283 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.159 true Kuipers skill score: 0.014
threat score:
0.000 0.111 0.647
threat score:
0.000 0.253 0.177
equitable threat score:
-0.089 0.011 0.324
equitable threat score:
-0.025 -0.007 0.037
probability of detection:
0.000 0.143 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.793 0.196
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.353
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.729 0.353
samples: 23 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 21.90 %coverage: 100.00