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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
4
6
11
21
5
7
11
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
16
22
45
83
4
6
11
21
20
29
56
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
0
4
4
0
0
4
17
26
48
91
22
30
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
15
21
43
79
4
6
10
20
19
28
53
100

hitrate: 0.478 hitrate: 0.314
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 0.14 1.91
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.86 0.38
Heidke skill score: 0.217 Heidke skill score: -0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.035 true Heidke skill score: -0.019
Kuipers skill score: 0.217 Kuipers skill score: -0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.030 true Kuipers skill score: -0.021
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.524
threat score:
0.000 0.244 0.167
equitable threat score:
-0.038 -0.040 0.087
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.014 -0.004
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.759 0.196
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.476
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.735 0.476
samples: 23 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 21.90 %coverage: 100.00