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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
14
5
23
4
14
5
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
26
40
82
4
14
5
23
20
40
45
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
61
22
100
17
61
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
25
38
78
4
13
5
22
19
38
43
100

hitrate: 0.217 hitrate: 0.295
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.05 0.51
Heidke skill score: -0.174 Heidke skill score: -0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.158
Kuipers skill score: -0.174 Kuipers skill score: -0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.151
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.217
threat score:
0.000 0.271 0.079
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.081 -0.091
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.650 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.783
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.683 0.783
samples: 23 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 21.90 %coverage: 100.00