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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
2
2
13
5
20
4
14
5
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
17
27
40
84
2
13
5
20
20
40
45
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
4
4
0
9
9
57
22
87
17
61
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
16
26
38
80
2
12
5
19
19
38
43
100

hitrate: 0.304 hitrate: 0.314
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 0.14 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.10 0.44
Heidke skill score: -0.043 Heidke skill score: -0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.073 true Heidke skill score: -0.121
Kuipers skill score: -0.043 Kuipers skill score: -0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.099 true Kuipers skill score: -0.116
threat score:
0.250 0.067 0.250
threat score:
0.050 0.278 0.083
equitable threat score:
0.216 -0.016 0.042
equitable threat score:
0.041 -0.077 -0.069
probability of detection:
0.250 0.071 1.000
probability of detection:
0.050 0.675 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.679 0.750
samples: 23 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 21.90 %coverage: 100.00