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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
3
13
5
21
4
14
5
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
27
40
84
3
13
5
21
20
40
45
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
4
0
9
13
57
22
91
17
61
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
26
38
80
3
12
5
20
19
38
43
100

hitrate: 0.261 hitrate: 0.305
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.14 4.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.10 0.47
Heidke skill score: -0.109 Heidke skill score: -0.043
true Heidke skill score: 0.013 true Heidke skill score: -0.141
Kuipers skill score: -0.109 Kuipers skill score: -0.043
true Kuipers skill score: 0.017 true Kuipers skill score: -0.135
threat score:
0.000 0.067 0.238
threat score:
0.000 0.278 0.082
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.016 0.026
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.077 -0.077
probability of detection:
0.000 0.071 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.675 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.762
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.679 0.762
samples: 23 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 21.90 %coverage: 100.00