CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
0
0
0
0
4
4
10
18
6
5
10
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
18
11
55
84
4
4
10
18
24
16
65
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
5
0
14
0
0
0
0
19
19
48
86
29
24
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
17
10
52
80
4
4
10
17
23
15
62
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.219
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 1.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 5.25 0.28
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: -0.171
true Heidke skill score: 0.222 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: -0.171
true Kuipers skill score: 0.193 true Kuipers skill score: -0.029
threat score:
0.286 0.000 0.556
threat score:
0.080 0.124 0.137
equitable threat score:
0.186 0.000 0.152
equitable threat score:
0.054 -0.024 -0.018
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.083 0.688 0.154
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.869 0.444
samples: 21 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00