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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
1
0
1
2
4
4
9
17
6
5
10
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
19
11
56
86
4
4
9
17
24
16
65
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
0
10
5
0
5
10
19
19
43
81
29
24
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
18
10
53
82
4
4
9
16
23
15
62
100

hitrate: 0.476 hitrate: 0.200
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.40 1.70
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 5.38 0.26
Heidke skill score: 0.214 Heidke skill score: -0.200
true Heidke skill score: 0.072 true Heidke skill score: -0.038
Kuipers skill score: 0.214 Kuipers skill score: -0.200
true Kuipers skill score: 0.064 true Kuipers skill score: -0.054
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.040 0.121 0.123
equitable threat score:
0.067 -0.073 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.022 -0.027 -0.024
probability of detection:
0.167 0.000 0.900
probability of detection:
0.042 0.688 0.138
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.471
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.872 0.471
samples: 21 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00