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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
1
1
0
2
4
3
10
17
6
5
10
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
19
12
55
86
4
3
10
17
24
16
65
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
0
10
5
5
0
10
19
14
48
81
29
24
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
18
11
52
82
4
3
10
16
23
15
62
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.219
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.40 1.70
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 5.38 0.26
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: -0.171
true Heidke skill score: 0.241 true Heidke skill score: -0.013
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: -0.171
true Kuipers skill score: 0.214 true Kuipers skill score: -0.019
threat score:
0.143 0.167 0.588
threat score:
0.040 0.133 0.139
equitable threat score:
0.067 0.095 0.214
equitable threat score:
0.022 -0.014 -0.009
probability of detection:
0.167 0.200 1.000
probability of detection:
0.042 0.750 0.154
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.500 0.412
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.860 0.412
samples: 21 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00