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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
0
0
1
1
0
5
11
16
2
7
12
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
15
19
51
85
0
5
11
16
17
26
62
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
10
0
19
0
0
5
5
0
24
52
76
10
33
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
14
18
49
81
0
5
10
15
16
25
59
100

hitrate: 0.619 hitrate: 0.305
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.14 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.24 3.27 0.26
Heidke skill score: 0.429 Heidke skill score: -0.043
true Heidke skill score: 0.282 true Heidke skill score: 0.012
Kuipers skill score: 0.429 Kuipers skill score: -0.043
true Kuipers skill score: 0.270 true Kuipers skill score: 0.014
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.647
threat score:
0.105 0.207 0.164
equitable threat score:
0.447 -0.043 0.236
equitable threat score:
0.074 -0.029 0.027
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.917
probability of detection:
0.118 0.731 0.177
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.312
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.776 0.312
samples: 21 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00