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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
1
0
1
2
0
6
11
17
2
7
12
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
16
19
51
86
0
6
11
17
17
26
62
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
0
10
5
0
5
10
0
29
52
81
10
33
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
15
18
49
82
0
6
10
16
16
25
59
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.295
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.29 1.42
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 3.31 0.27
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: -0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.137 true Heidke skill score: -0.009
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: -0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.123 true Kuipers skill score: -0.011
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.611
threat score:
0.056 0.204 0.162
equitable threat score:
0.288 -0.080 0.155
equitable threat score:
0.038 -0.032 0.017
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.917
probability of detection:
0.059 0.731 0.177
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.353
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.779 0.353
samples: 21 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00