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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
4
6
0
0
3
3
1
6
5
12
2
7
12
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
4
6
15
19
53
87
1
6
5
12
17
26
62
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
19
29
0
0
14
14
5
29
24
57
10
33
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
4
6
14
18
50
83
1
6
5
11
16
25
59
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.238
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.43 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.35 3.35 0.19
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.143
true Heidke skill score: -0.193 true Heidke skill score: -0.061
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.143
true Kuipers skill score: -0.209 true Kuipers skill score: -0.078
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.263
threat score:
0.045 0.202 0.072
equitable threat score:
0.067 -0.111 -0.153
equitable threat score:
0.001 -0.035 -0.034
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.417
probability of detection:
0.059 0.731 0.081
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 1.000 0.583
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.782 0.583
samples: 21 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00