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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
0
1
9
10
0
3
2
5
3
6
11
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
13
26
55
94
0
3
2
5
16
31
57
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
10
0
25
0
5
45
50
0
15
10
25
15
30
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
13
25
53
90
0
3
2
5
15
30
55
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 1.67 0.45
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.31 3.03 0.09
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.037 true Heidke skill score: -0.007
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.043 true Kuipers skill score: -0.009
threat score:
0.600 0.067 0.143
threat score:
0.167 0.263 0.033
equitable threat score:
0.529 -0.167 -0.067
equitable threat score:
0.129 -0.028 -0.013
probability of detection:
1.000 0.167 0.182
probability of detection:
0.188 0.839 0.035
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.900 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.723 0.600
samples: 20 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 19.23 %coverage: 100.00