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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
8
12
1
2
1
4
0
2
2
4
3
6
11
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
8
12
14
27
47
88
0
2
2
4
16
31
57
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
10
40
60
5
10
5
20
0
10
10
20
15
30
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
8
12
13
26
45
85
0
2
2
4
15
30
55
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.67 0.36
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 2.84 0.07
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.054 true Heidke skill score: 0.010
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.068 true Kuipers skill score: 0.012
threat score:
0.154 0.250 0.154
threat score:
0.077 0.293 0.034
equitable threat score:
0.018 0.118 -0.019
equitable threat score:
0.006 0.012 -0.003
probability of detection:
0.667 0.333 0.182
probability of detection:
0.125 0.871 0.035
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.500 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.693 0.500
samples: 20 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 19.23 %coverage: 100.00