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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
4
9
1
1
2
4
0
2
5
7
3
6
11
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
4
9
14
26
48
88
0
2
5
7
16
31
57
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
15
20
45
5
5
10
20
0
10
25
35
15
30
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
4
9
13
25
46
85
0
2
5
7
15
30
55
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.317
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.67 0.64
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.56 2.84 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.024
true Heidke skill score: 0.118 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.024
true Kuipers skill score: 0.137 true Kuipers skill score: 0.025
threat score:
0.200 0.111 0.385
threat score:
0.087 0.280 0.085
equitable threat score:
0.075 -0.026 0.126
equitable threat score:
0.028 -0.003 0.021
probability of detection:
0.667 0.167 0.455
probability of detection:
0.125 0.839 0.088
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.750 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.705 0.286
samples: 20 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 19.23 %coverage: 100.00