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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
6
7
0
0
9
9
0
1
3
4
0
2
18
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
6
7
0
6
87
93
0
1
3
4
0
8
96
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
30
35
0
0
45
45
0
5
15
20
0
10
90
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
6
7
0
6
84
89
0
1
3
4
0
8
92
100

hitrate: 0.150 hitrate: 0.087
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 4.50 0.22
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 11.62 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.275 Heidke skill score: -0.370
true Heidke skill score: -0.097 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: -0.275 Kuipers skill score: -0.370
true Kuipers skill score: -0.417 true Kuipers skill score: -0.125
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.158
threat score:
0.000 0.063 0.031
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.089 -0.039
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.013 -0.007
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.167
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.031
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.935 0.250
samples: 20 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 19.23 %coverage: 100.00