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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
16
17
0
1
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
2
18
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
16
17
0
7
80
87
0
0
0
0
0
8
96
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
80
85
0
5
10
15
0
0
0
0
0
10
90
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
15
16
0
7
77
84
0
0
0
0
0
8
92
100

hitrate: 0.050 hitrate: 0.067
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.50 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 10.87 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.425 Heidke skill score: -0.399
true Heidke skill score: 0.036 true Heidke skill score: 0.003
Kuipers skill score: -0.425 Kuipers skill score: -0.399
true Kuipers skill score: 0.194 true Kuipers skill score: 0.021
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.080 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.189 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.004 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.875 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.920 0.000
samples: 20 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 19.23 %coverage: 100.00