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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199808-199810

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
0
1
4
5
0
0
7
7
0
2
16
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
2
8
81
91
0
0
7
7
2
9
93
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
28
33
0
6
22
28
0
0
39
39
0
11
89
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
2
8
78
88
0
0
7
7
2
9
89
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.144
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.50 0.44
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 10.11 0.08
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.284
true Heidke skill score: 0.109 true Heidke skill score: 0.008
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.284
true Kuipers skill score: 0.344 true Kuipers skill score: 0.037
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.438
threat score:
0.000 0.087 0.075
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.082 0.080
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.001 0.009
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.438
probability of detection:
0.000 0.889 0.075
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.912 0.000
samples: 18 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 17.31 %coverage: 100.00