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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199808-199810

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
12
12
0
0
3
3
0
2
1
3
0
2
16
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
12
12
2
7
80
89
0
2
1
3
2
9
93
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
67
67
0
0
17
17
0
11
6
17
0
11
89
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
12
12
2
7
77
86
0
2
1
3
2
9
89
100

hitrate: 0.056 hitrate: 0.077
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.50 0.19
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
6.00 9.89 0.03
Heidke skill score: -0.417 Heidke skill score: -0.385
true Heidke skill score: -0.133 true Heidke skill score: -0.028
Kuipers skill score: -0.417 Kuipers skill score: -0.385
true Kuipers skill score: -0.563 true Kuipers skill score: -0.131
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.056
threat score:
0.000 0.077 0.011
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.071 -0.109
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.008 -0.018
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.062
probability of detection:
0.000 0.778 0.011
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.921 0.667
samples: 18 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 17.31 %coverage: 100.00