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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199808-199810

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
13
13
0
0
1
1
0
2
2
4
0
2
16
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
13
13
2
7
78
87
0
2
2
4
2
9
93
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
72
72
0
0
6
6
0
11
11
22
0
11
89
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
13
13
2
7
75
84
0
2
2
4
2
9
89
100

hitrate: 0.111 hitrate: 0.087
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 0.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
6.50 9.67 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.333 Heidke skill score: -0.370
true Heidke skill score: -0.116 true Heidke skill score: -0.025
Kuipers skill score: -0.333 Kuipers skill score: -0.370
true Kuipers skill score: -0.469 true Kuipers skill score: -0.118
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.111
threat score:
0.000 0.079 0.021
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.038 -0.108
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.006 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.125
probability of detection:
0.000 0.778 0.022
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.920 0.500
samples: 18 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 17.31 %coverage: 100.00