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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
10
14
1
3
10
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
4
45
49
1
3
10
14
1
7
55
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
21
71
100
7
21
71
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
6
71
78
2
5
16
22
2
11
87
100

hitrate: 0.714 hitrate: 0.222
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 7.00 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.571 Heidke skill score: -0.167
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.081
Kuipers skill score: 0.571 Kuipers skill score: -0.167
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.258
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.714
threat score:
0.000 0.077 0.169
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.031 -0.048
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.571 0.182
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.918 0.286
samples: 14 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 22.22 %coverage: 100.00