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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
13
13
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
4
2
2
13
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
13
13
3
10
75
88
2
2
0
4
5
12
88
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
76
76
0
0
0
0
12
12
0
24
12
12
76
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
12
12
3
10
71
84
2
2
0
4
5
11
84
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.095
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
6.50 0.00 0.31
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.60 7.33 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.357
true Heidke skill score: -0.370 true Heidke skill score: -0.044
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.357
true Kuipers skill score: -0.696 true Kuipers skill score: -0.136
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.111 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.114 0.000 -0.219
equitable threat score:
-0.036 -0.001 -0.038
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.886 1.000
samples: 17 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 16.19 %coverage: 100.00