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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
11
11
2
0
2
4
0
2
0
2
2
2
13
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
11
11
5
10
77
92
0
2
0
2
5
12
88
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
65
65
12
0
12
24
0
12
0
12
12
12
76
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
10
10
5
10
73
88
0
2
0
2
5
11
84
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.095
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.50 2.00 0.15
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.20 7.67 0.02
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.357
true Heidke skill score: -0.240 true Heidke skill score: -0.029
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.357
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: -0.092
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.106 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.111 -0.085 -0.114
equitable threat score:
-0.034 -0.006 -0.019
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.891 1.000
samples: 17 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 16.19 %coverage: 100.00