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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
9
15
3
3
9
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
9
38
48
3
3
9
15
4
12
47
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
20
60
100
20
20
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
14
60
76
5
5
14
24
6
19
75
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.00 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.055
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.092
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.176 0.170
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.003 -0.052
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.191
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.812 0.400
samples: 15 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 23.81 %coverage: 100.00