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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
6
11
21
4
6
11
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
12
68
84
4
6
11
21
8
18
79
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19
29
52
100
19
29
52
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
11
65
80
4
6
10
20
8
17
75
100

hitrate: 0.524 hitrate: 0.219
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.91
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.67 0.27
Heidke skill score: 0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.171
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.096
Kuipers skill score: 0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.171
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.172
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.524
threat score:
0.000 0.133 0.124
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.032 -0.066
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.139
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.476
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.857 0.476
samples: 21 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00