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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
0
3
6
9
4
2
0
6
4
6
11
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
4
15
74
93
4
2
0
6
8
18
79
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
24
29
0
14
29
43
19
10
0
29
19
29
52
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
4
14
70
89
4
2
0
6
8
17
75
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.143
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 1.50 0.55
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 5.17 0.08
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.286
true Heidke skill score: -0.273 true Heidke skill score: -0.070
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.286
true Kuipers skill score: -0.302 true Kuipers skill score: -0.141
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.156 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.129 0.045 -0.227
equitable threat score:
-0.034 -0.012 -0.056
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.839 1.000
samples: 21 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00