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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811-199901

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
25
27
1
1
25
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
1
33
35
1
1
25
27
2
2
58
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
93
100
4
4
93
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
2
53
56
2
2
40
44
3
3
94
100

hitrate: 0.926 hitrate: 0.419
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.08
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 17.50 0.47
Heidke skill score: 0.889 Heidke skill score: 0.129
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.011
Kuipers skill score: 0.889 Kuipers skill score: 0.129
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.051
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.926
threat score:
0.000 0.028 0.417
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.004 -0.007
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.431
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.074
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.971 0.074
samples: 27 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 43.55 %coverage: 100.00