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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811-199901

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
9
1
1
13
15
1
1
22
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
1
45
47
1
1
13
15
2
2
58
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
38
4
4
54
63
4
4
92
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
2
73
76
2
2
21
24
3
3
94
100

hitrate: 0.542 hitrate: 0.226
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 9.00 0.68
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 23.50 0.26
Heidke skill score: 0.313 Heidke skill score: -0.161
true Heidke skill score: -0.114 true Heidke skill score: -0.033
Kuipers skill score: 0.313 Kuipers skill score: -0.161
true Kuipers skill score: -0.300 true Kuipers skill score: -0.203
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.542
threat score:
0.000 0.021 0.217
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.039 -0.073
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.011 -0.022
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.591
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.224
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.133
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.979 0.133
samples: 24 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 38.71 %coverage: 100.00