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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811-199901

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
22
24
1
1
22
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
3
72
80
1
1
22
24
6
4
94
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
92
100
4
4
92
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
3
69
77
1
1
21
23
6
4
90
100

hitrate: 0.917 hitrate: 0.240
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.09
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 20.00 0.26
Heidke skill score: 0.875 Heidke skill score: -0.139
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.003
Kuipers skill score: 0.875 Kuipers skill score: -0.139
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.012
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.917
threat score:
0.000 0.037 0.229
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.001 0.004
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.234
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.962 0.083
samples: 24 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 23.08 %coverage: 100.00