CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
0
1
1
1
2
19
22
1
2
23
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
1
1
35
37
1
2
19
22
2
3
57
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
12
12
0
0
4
4
4
8
73
85
4
8
88
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
2
2
56
60
2
3
31
35
3
5
92
100

hitrate: 0.731 hitrate: 0.323
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.50 0.96
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 12.33 0.39
Heidke skill score: 0.596 Heidke skill score: -0.016
true Heidke skill score: -0.103 true Heidke skill score: -0.053
Kuipers skill score: 0.596 Kuipers skill score: -0.016
true Kuipers skill score: -0.120 true Kuipers skill score: -0.225
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.731
threat score:
0.000 0.026 0.317
equitable threat score:
-0.030 -0.026 -0.071
equitable threat score:
-0.020 -0.021 -0.031
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.826
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.136
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.973 0.136
samples: 26 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 41.94 %coverage: 100.00